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oneness and Impact of
late Average Fue!
My (CAFE) Standards
Committee on the Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate
Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Transportation Research Board
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
Effecti'
Corpora
Economy
OCR for page R2
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Grant No. DTNH22-00-G-
02307. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are
those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that
provided support for the project.
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Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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National Acaclemy of Sciences
National Acaclemy of Engineering
Institute of Meclicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to
their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the
Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters.
Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy
of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in
the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the
federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engi-
neers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services
of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of
the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advis-
ing the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer-
ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine.
Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National
Research Council.
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COMMITTEE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS AND IMPACT OF CORPORATE AVERAGE FUEL
ECONOMY (CAFE) STANDARDS
PAUL R. PORTNEY, Chair, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
DAVID L. MORRISON, Vice Chair, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (retired), Cary,
North Carolina
MICHAEL M. FINKELSTEIN, Michael Finkelstein & Associates, Washington, D.C.
DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, Tennessee
JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan
MARYANN N. KELLER, priceline.com (retired), Greenwich, Connecticut
CHARLES A. LAVE, University of California (emeritus), Irvine
ADRIAN K. LUND, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, Virginia
PHILLIP S. MYERS, NAT, University of Wisconsin, Madison (emeritus)
GARY W. ROGERS, FEV Engine Technology, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan
PHILIP R. SHARP, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, Stanford, California
JOHN J. WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Corporation (retired), Princeton,
New Jersey
Pro jest Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)
ALAN CRANE, Responsible Staff Officer, Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) Standards
STEPHEN GODWIN, Director, Studies and Information Services (SIS), Transportation Research
Board (TRB)
NANCY HUMPHREY, Senior Program Officer, SIS, TRB
PANOLA D. GOLSON, Senior Project Assistant, BEES
ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Project Assistant, BEES
Editor
DUNCAN BROWN
NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering
V
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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ROBERT L. HIRSCH, Chair, Advanced Power Technologies, Inc., Washington, D.C.
RICHARD E. BALZHISER, NAT, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (retired), Menlo Park,
California
DAVID L. BODDE, University of Missouri, Kansas City
PHILIP R. CLARK, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey
WILLIAM L. FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin
CHRISTOPHER FLAVIN, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C.
HAROLD FORSEN, NAE, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering,
Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired) and University of Tennessee,
Knoxville
MARTHA A. KREBS, California Nano Systems Institute, Alexandria, Virginia
GERALD L. KULCINSKI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison
EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
ROBERT W. SHAW JR., Arete Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire
JACK SIEGEL, Energy Resources International, Inc., Washington, D.C.
ROBERT SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan
JACK WHITE, The Winslow Group, LLC, Fairfax, Virginia
JOHN J. WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Corporation (retired), Princeton,
New Jersey
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director
RICHARD CAMPBELL, Program Officer
ALAN CRANE, Program Officer
MARTIN OFFUTT, Program Officer
SUSANNA CLARENDON, Financial Associate
PANOLA D. GOLSON, Project Assistant
ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Project Assistant
SHANNA LIBERMAN, Project Assistant
NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering
v
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Acknowledgments
The Committee on the Effectiveness and Impact of Cor-
porate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards was aided
by the following consultants: Tom Austin, Sierra Research,
Inc.; K.G. Duleep, Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.;
and Steve Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory. These con-
sultants provided analyses to the committee, which the com-
mittee used in addition to the many other sources of infor-
mation it received.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accor-
dance with procedures approved by the Report Review Com-
mittee of the National Research Council (NRC). The pur-
pose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in
making the published report as sound as possible and to en-
sure that the report meets institutional standards for objec-
tivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
content of the review comments and draft manuscript re-
main confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative
process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their
participation in the review of this report:
William Agnew (NAB), General Motors Research
Laboratories (retired);
Lewis Branscomb (NAS, NAB), Harvard University
(emeritus);
David Cole, Environmental Research Institute of
Michigan;
. .
via
Kennerly H. Digges, George Washington University;
Theodore H. Geballe (NAS), Stanford University
(emeritus);
Paul J. Joskow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology;
James A. Levinsohn, University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor;
James J. MacKenzie, World Resources Institute; and
Marc Ross, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many
constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked
to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they
see the final draft of the report before its release. The review
of this report was overseen by John Heywood (NAB), Mas-
sachusetts Institute of Technology, and Gerald P. Dinneen
(NAB), Honeywell Inc. (retired). Appointed by the National
Research Council, they were responsible for making certain
that an independent examination of the report was carried
out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all
review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility
for the final content of this report rests entirely with the
authoring committee and the institution.
In addition, the committee reexamined its technical and
economic analysis after the release of the Republication
copy in July 2001. The results of that reexamination were
released in a letter report, which is also included in this report
as Appendix F. The reviewers of that report are credited in
Appendix F.
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Scope and Conduct of the Study, 11
References, 12
2 THE CAFE STANDARDS: AN ASSESSMENT
CAFE and Energy, 13
Impacts on the Automobile Industry, 22
Impact on Safety, 24
References, 29
TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE FUEL ECONOMY
OF PASSENGER CARS AND LIGHT-DUTY TRUCKS
Fuel Economy Overview, 31
Technologies for Better Fuel Economy, 35
Estimating Potential Fuel Economy Gains and Costs, 40
Hybrid Vehicles, 51
Fuel Cells, 53
References, 55
Attachment 3A A Technical Evaluation of Two Weight- and Engineering-Based
Fuel-Efficiency Parameters for Cars and Light Trucks, 56
4 IMPACT OF A MORE FUEL-EFFICIENT FLEET
Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Impact, 63
Analysis of Cost-Efficient Fuel Economy, 64
Potential Impacts on the Domestic Automobile Industry, 67
Safety Implications of Future Increases in Fuel Economy, 69
References, 78
Attachment 4A Life-Cycle Analysis of Automobile Technologies, 79
5 POTENTIAL MODIFICATIONS OF AND ALTERNATIVES TO CAFE
Why Governmental Intervention?, 83
Alternative Policies Summary Description, 86
More Complete Descriptions of the Alternatives, 88
Analysis of Alternatives, 94
References, 103
Attachment 5A Development of an Enhanced-CAFE Standard, 104
fix
1
7
13
31
63
83
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XCONTENTS
6 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Findings, 111
Recommendations, 114
APPENDIXES
A Dissent on Safety Issues: Fuel Economy and Highway Safety,
David L. Greene and Maryann Keller, 117
B Biographical Sketches of Committee Members, 125
C Presentations and Committee Activities, 128
D Statement of Work: Effectiveness and Impact of CAFE Standards, 130
E Acronyms and Abbreviations, 131
F Letter Report: Technology and Economic Analysis in the Prepublication Report
Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFEJ Standards, 133
111
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Tables and Figures
TABLES
Change in Death or Injury Rates for 100-lb Weight Reduction in Average Car or Average
Light Truck, 26
Occupant Deaths per Million Registered Vehicles 1 to 3 Years Old, 28
Distribution of Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities in 1993 and 1999 by Vehicle and Crash
Type, 29
3-1 Fuel Consumption Technology Matrix Passenger Cars, 42
3-2 Fuel Consumption Technology Matrix SUVs and Minivans, 43
3-3 Fuel Consumption Technology Matrix Pickup Trucks, 44
3-4 Estimated Fuel Consumption (FC), Fuel Economy (FE), and Incremental Costs of Product
Development, 45
3-5 Published Data for Some Hybrid Vehicles, 52
4-1 Key Assumptions of Cost-Efficient Analysis for New Car and Light Truck Fuel Economy
Estimates Using Path 3 Technologies and Costs, 65
4-2 Case 1: Cost-Efficient Fuel Economy (FE) Analysis for 14-Year Payback, 67
4-3 Case 2: Cost-Efficient Fuel Economy (FE) Analysis for 3-Year Payback, 67
4-4 Relative Collision Claim Frequencies for 1998-2000 Models, 73
4A-1 Vehicle Architecture and Fuels Used in the MIT and General Motors et al. Studies, 79
Incentives of the Various Policy Instruments for Seven Types of Fuel Use Response, 95
Issues of Cost Minimization for the Various Policy Instruments, 98
Performance Trade-offs for the Various Policy Instruments, 99
A-1 Estimated Effects of a 10 Percent Reduction in the Weights of Passenger Cars and Light
Trucks, 120
FIGURES
2-1
Oil price shocks and economic growth, 1970-1999, 14
Automotive fuel economy standards (AFES) and manufacturers' CAFE levels, 14
Average weights of domestic and imported vehicles, 15
2-4 Fleet fuel economy of new and on-road passenger cars and light trucks, 16
Passenger car size and weight, 17
x~
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. .
xt!
TABLES AND FIGURES
2-6 Trends in fuel-economy-related attributes of passenger cars, 1975-2000, 17
2-7 Trends in fuel-economy-related attributes of light trucks, 1975-2000, 17
2-8 Average new car price and fuel economy, 18
2-9 Passenger car and light-truck travel and fuel use, 19
2-10 Employment and productivity in the U.S. automotive industry, 22
2-11
2-12
Net profit rates of domestic manufacturers, 1972-1997, 22
Investments in retooling by domestic automobile manufacturers, 1972-1997, with
automotive fuel economy standards (AFES) for passenger cars and trucks, 23
2-13 R&D investments by domestic automobile manufacturers, 1972-1997, with automotive
fuel economy standards (AFES) for passenger cars and trucks, 24
2-14 Motor vehicle crash death rates, 1950-1998, 25
3-1
Energy use in vehicles, 32
Where the energy in the fuel goes, 33
EPA data for fuel economy for MY 2000 and 2001 cars and light trucks, 34
3-4 Subcompact cars. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 46
Compact cars. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 46
3-6 Midsize cars. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 47
3-7 Large cars. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 47
3-8 Small SUVs. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 48
3-9 Midsize SUVs. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 48
3-10 Large SUVs. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 49
3-11 Minivans. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 49
3-12 Small pickups. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 50
3-13 Large pickups. Incremental cost as a function of fuel consumption, 50
3-14 Relationship between the power of an internal combustion engine and the power of an
electric motor in a hybrid electric vehicle, 51
Breakdown of fuel economy improvements bv technolo~v combination. 52
3-15
3-16
3-17
3-18
4-1
4-2
4-3
4-4
4-5
4-6
4-7
4-8
~ 1 ~ ~7~
Working principles of a PEM fuel cell, 53
State of the art and future targets for fuel cell development, 54
Typical fuel cell efficiency, 55
Dependence of fuel consumption on fuel economy, 56
Weight-specific fuel consumption versus weight for all vehicles, 57
Fleet fuel economy, 57
Best-in-class fuel-efficiency analysis of 2000 and 2001 vehicles, 58
LSFC versus payload for a variety of vehicles, 59
Fuel consumption versus payload, 59
Payload versus LSFC, 60
Payload for a variety of vehicles, 60
Fuel economy as a function of average WSFC for different classes of vehicles, 61
Fuel economy versus average payload for different classes of vehicles, 62
Fuel use in alternative 2013 fuel economy scenarios, 63
Fuel savings of alternative 2013 fuel economy improvement targets, 64
Fuel-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in alternative 2013 fuel economy cases, 64
Greenhouse gas emissions reductions from hypothetical alternative fuel economy
improvements targets, 64
Passenger car fuel economy cost curves from selected studies, 68
Light-truck fuel economy cost curves from selected studies, 68
Occupant death rates in single-vehicle crashes for 1990-1996 model passenger vehicles
by weight of vehicle, 71
Occupant death rates in two-vehicle crashes for 1990-1996 model passenger vehicles by
weight of vehicle, 71
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TABLES AND FIGURES
. . .
Xti!
4-9 Occupant death rates in other vehicles in two-vehicle crashes for 1990-1996 model
passenger vehicles, 72
4-10 Pedestrian/bicyclist/motorcyclist death rates for 1990-1996 model passenger vehicles by
vehicle weight, 72
4A-1 Life-cycle comparisons of technologies for midsize passenger vehicles, 80
4A-2 Well-to-wheels total system energy use for selected fuel/vehicle pathways, 81
4A-3 Well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions for selected fuel/vehicle pathways, 82
5-1 The operation of the current CAFE standards: passenger cars, gasoline engines only,
1999, 92
5-2 Fuel economy targets under the Enhanced-CAFE system: cars with gasoline engines, 93
5A-1 Gallons used per 100 miles (cars only, gasoline engines only), 104
5A-2 Regression line through the car data in Figure 5A-1 (passenger cars only, gasoline engines
only), 105
5A-3 Gallons to drive 100 miles with regression lines (cars and trucks, gasoline engines
only), 106
5A-4 Gallons used per 100 miles (all vehicles), 106
5A-5 Weight-specific fuel consumption, 107
5A-6 Enhanced CAFE targets, 109
5A-7 Enhanced CAFE targets in WSFC units, 109
A-1 NHTSA passenger-side crash ratings for MY 2001 passenger cars, 121
A-2 NHTSA driver-side crash ratings for MY 2001 passenger cars, 121
A-3 Estimated frequency of damage to a tree or pole given a single-vehicle crash with a fixed
object, 122
A-4 NHTSA static stability factor vs. total weight for MY 2001 vehicles, 123
A-5 Traffic fatality rates and on-road light-duty miles per gallon 1996-2000, 123
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